Asked to provide a recipe for World War III, many historically minded analysts might mention growing belligerence by dissatisfied great powers; inconsistent system responses; and a succession of economic downturns and domestic political upheavals, followed by a short-term crisis that pushes the system to the brink. Yet a new set of risks is emerging. Today, the ambitions and risk-taking of a jostling, often increasingly assertive crowd of middle powers seeking a larger voice in world politics is causing widespread turbulence in the global system as well as new challenges for U.S. statecraft.
In such a context, international stability and the outcome of great-power rivalries will be a product of many factors beyond Russian and Chinese agitation. One of the most important will be the behavior of middle powers — the growing number of developed and developing countries uninterested in a new bipolar stand-off and determined to chart an independent course. They, as much as the United States or its great-power rivals, will play pivotal roles in determining the future of the international system. The United States has yet to demonstrate that it can operate effectively in this new context. To adapt, Washington should directly address the ambitions and disputes of middle powers — especially those that are not close U.S. allies — and to revise its strategy for competition with Russia and China in ways that take seriously the autonomous position of these other states.
In its relations with middle powers, Washington should not hesitate to insist upon a very short list of norms of acceptable behavior. But while doing so, it should move decisively toward a more inclusive and less coercive approach that prioritizes relations with middle powers as a critical component of U.S. statecraft. This means leading with a broader global agenda that addresses the concerns of middle powers, rather than seeking to exclude states from global networks through overly simplistic frames such as democracy versus autocracy. And while the Indo-Pacific is certainly a principal concern, the United States should not overshoot in regional prioritization. This will generate power vacuums that other powers rush to fill. Finally, Washington should do more to address the systemic risks of conflict escalation between small and middle powers. chad powers t shirts
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